Sparta Katowice vs Goczałkowice Zdrój Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Sparta Katowice and 0.70 for Goczałkowice Zdrój, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Sparta Katowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.

Model pick

Sparta Katowice to Win

57.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.55 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sparta Katowice win58%

Draw26%

Goczałkowice Zdrój win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.3%
2–012.7%
1–111.4%
0–010.5%
2–18.9%

Why the model likes this

Goczałkowice Zdrój away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Katowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 26% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Sparta Katowice and 0.70 for Goczałkowice Zdrój, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Recent form

Sparta Katowice

Goczałkowice Zdrój

2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.