Bulgaria · Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 315:00

15:00 UTC

Saturday, 22 August 2026

· Analysis updated 02:50 UTC

Spartak Plovdiv vs Yambol 1915 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.42 for Yambol 1915, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Spartak Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Spartak Plovdiv to Win

49.0% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.91 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Spartak Plovdiv win49%
Draw22%
Yambol 1915 win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams to score65%

Correct score

  • 1–19.7%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–26.9%
  • 1–06.8%
  • 2–26.6%

Why the model likes this

  • Spartak Plovdiv home form

    12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Spartak Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.91 goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.42 for Yambol 1915, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Spartak Plovdiv

  • 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-3 (W)
  • 2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-4 (L)
  • 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-1 (W)
  • 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-6 (L)
  • 2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 4-0 (W)

Yambol 1915

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.