Spartak Plovdiv vs Yambol 1915 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Spartak Plovdiv and 1.65 for Yambol 1915, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Spartak Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Spartak Plovdiv to Win

46.2% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.99 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Spartak Plovdiv win46%

Draw22%

Yambol 1915 win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.6%
2–18.6%
1–27.1%
2–27.1%
3–15.7%

Why the model likes this

Spartak Plovdiv home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yambol 1915 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Spartak Plovdiv

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-6 (L)
2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 4-0 (W)

Yambol 1915

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rozova dolina · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Plovdiv · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rakovski 2011 · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 2-4 Yambol 1915 (Third League - Southeast)
2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 0-3 Yambol 1915 (Third League - Southeast)
2025-04-30T14:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 5-2 Yambol 1915 (Third League - Southeast)
2024-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 3-0 Yambol 1915 (Third League - Southeast)
2024-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 2-0 Yambol 1915 (Third League - Southeast)
2023-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 7-0 Yambol 1915 (Third League - Southeast)
2023-04-08T14:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 0-2 Yambol 1915 (Third League - Southeast)
2022-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 4-0 Yambol 1915 (Third League - Southeast)
2021-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 2-2 Yambol 1915 (Third League - Southeast)
2020-11-14T12:30:00.000Z · Spartak Plovdiv 2-3 Yambol 1915 (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rodopa Smolyan	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	Spartak Plovdiv	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Levski Krumovgrad	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	Maritsa Milevo	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Yambol 1915	2	1	1	0	3	4
6	Sayana Haskovo	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Botev Plovdiv II	1	1	0	0	2	3
8	Atletik Kuklen	2	1	0	1	1	3
9	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Rozova dolina	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Neftochimic Burgas	2	0	1	1	-2	1
12	Sekirovo Rakovski	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Zagorets	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Dimitrovgrad	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Gigant Saedinenie	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Sozopol	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Levski Karlovo	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.