Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.42 expected goals for Tartu Kalev and 2.13 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, a combined total of 5.55. That distribution gives Tartu Kalev the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.

Model pick

Tartu Kalev to Win

62.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

3.42 – 2.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Tartu Kalev win63%

Draw15%

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals91%

Over 3.5 goals80%

Both teams to score84%

Correct score

3–25.9%
3–15.5%
2–25.1%
4–25.0%
2–14.8%

Why the model likes this

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tartu Kalev to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 15% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.42 goals for Tartu Kalev and 2.13 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, a combined 5.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 91% and both teams to score at 84%, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Recent form

Tartu Kalev

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Kalev · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Luunja · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Narva U21 · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Johvi Phoenix · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.