Tartu Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.43 expected goals for Tartu Kalev and 2.13 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, a combined total of 5.55. That distribution gives Tartu Kalev the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tartu Kalev win

62.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.43 – 2.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tartu Kalev home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tartu Kalev to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 15% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.43 goals for Tartu Kalev and 2.13 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, a combined 5.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 91% and both teams to score at 84%, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Match result (1X2)

Tartu Kalev win63%

Draw15%

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals91%

Over 3.5 goals80%

Both teams to score84%

Correct score

3–25.9%
3–15.5%
2–25.1%
4–25.0%
2–14.8%

Recent form

Tartu Kalev

2026-10-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tulevik · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Legion · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 0-1 (L)

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

2026-10-17T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tulevik · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs JK Tabasalu · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Legion · 12-0 (W)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Kalev · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Narva U21	34	23	4	7	39	73
2	Levadia U19	33	21	2	10	30	65
3	Luunja	34	18	5	11	26	59
4	Phoenix	34	18	3	13	0	57
5	Tulevik	34	16	5	13	18	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	15	5	13	33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	16	2	16	13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	11	4	19	-38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	34	8	6	20	-18	30
10	Legion	34	3	4	27	-103	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tartu Kalev win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.