BUKO Stadion · Referee Ingmar Oostrom, Netherlands · Analysis updated 21:54 UTC
Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Telstar and 1.55 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Telstar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.
Model pick
Telstar or Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–06.9%
- 0–16.8%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Telstar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Telstar and 1.55 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
Telstar or Draw is the headline pick at 62% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Telstar
Sparta Rotterdam
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.