BUKO Stadion · Referee Ingmar Oostrom, Netherlands · Analysis updated 14:55 UTC
Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Telstar and 1.46 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Telstar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Telstar home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Rotterdam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.4%
- 0–16.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | 62.5% | 1.60 | +2.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.55 | 36.3% | 38.1% | 2.62 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Away | 2.86 | 32.7% | 34.2% | 2.92 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.40 | 39.2% | 40.1% | 2.49 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 57.4% | 58.0% | 1.72 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.2% | 76.2% | 1.31 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.22 | 42.1% | 42.0% | 2.38 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.4% | 65.8% | 1.52 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.55 | 60.8% | 59.9% | 1.67 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 25.3% | 23.8% | 4.20 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.45 | 63.8% | 61.9% | 1.62 | -1.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.35 | 40.1% | 37.5% | 2.67 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Telstar
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
Sparta Rotterdam
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Telstar 1-3 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · Telstar 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-04-22T18:00:00.000Z · Telstar 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2025-10-25T16:45:00.000Z · Telstar 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2021-07-13T12:00:00.000Z · Telstar 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2020-08-18T11:00:00.000Z · Telstar 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2019-01-25T19:00:00.000Z · Telstar 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eerste Divisie)
- 2018-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · Telstar 2-3 Sparta Rotterdam (Eerste Divisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.