Toronto FC vs CF Montreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Toronto FC and 1.35 for CF Montreal, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Toronto FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Toronto FC to Win

48.5% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Toronto FC win49%

Draw23%

CF Montreal win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.4%
1–07.6%
1–27.0%
2–06.9%

Why the model likes this

Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toronto FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Toronto FC and 1.35 for CF Montreal, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Toronto FC

CF Montreal

2026-08-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs DC United · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New England Revolution · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Miami · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-16T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-0 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-30T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-1 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-17T18:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 6-1 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-30T23:00:00.000Z · Toronto FC 2-2 CF Montreal (Canadian Championship)
2024-07-20T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-0 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
2024-05-18T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 5-1 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
2023-08-20T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 2-3 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
2023-05-13T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-2 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
2023-05-09T23:00:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-2 CF Montreal (Canadian Championship)
2022-09-04T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 3-4 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	4	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	15	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	11	33
5	St. Louis City	19	8	5	6	2	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	4	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	4	25
9	Minnesota United FC	19	6	7	6	-5	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
12	San Diego	19	6	6	7	4	24
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	20	5	7	8	-6	22
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	-30	14
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	24	43
2	Inter Miami	19	11	5	3	10	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.