BMO Field · Referee Allen Chapman, USA · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Toronto FC and 1.11 for CF Montreal, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Toronto FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toronto FC win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toronto FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CF Montreal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 46.6% vs market 37.5%, edge +9.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 37.5% | 46.6% | 2.15 | +9.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 25.9% | 26.6% | 3.76 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 51.1% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 73.3% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.2% | 25.0% | 4.00 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 49.0% | 48.5% | 2.06 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.6% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.5% | 53.4% | 1.87 | -9.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Toronto FC
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Montreal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City SC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 2-1 (W)
CF Montreal
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-16T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-0 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-08-30T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-1 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-05-17T18:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 6-1 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-04-30T23:00:00.000Z · Toronto FC 2-2 CF Montreal (Canadian Championship)
- 2024-07-20T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-0 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-05-18T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 5-1 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-08-20T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 2-3 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-05-13T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-2 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-05-09T23:00:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-2 CF Montreal (Canadian Championship)
- 2022-09-04T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 3-4 CF Montreal (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toronto FC win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.