Twente vs Qarabag Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Twente and 1.25 for Qarabag, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Twente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws roughly 35% of the time.

Model pick

Twente to Win

64.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.50 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Twente win65%

Draw18%

Qarabag win18%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.2%
3–17.7%
2–07.3%
1–17.3%
3–06.1%

Why the model likes this

Twente home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Twente and 1.25 for Qarabag, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 65%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Twente

2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-09T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 6-0 (W)
2026-08-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-2 (D)

Qarabag

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.