World · UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round18:00

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Thursday, 20 August 2026

De Grolsch Veste · Referee J. Xhaja · Analysis updated 16:14 UTC

Twente vs Qarabag Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Twente and 0.99 for Qarabag, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Twente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Twente win

61.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

2.01 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Twente home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Qarabag away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Twente and 0.99 for Qarabag, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Twente win61%

Draw21%

Qarabag win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

2–010.1%
1–010.0%
2–110.0%
1–19.9%
3–06.7%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Goals	Under 3.5	1.50	63.0%	64.7%	1.55	+1.7
Both teams to score	No	2.05	44.6%	45.6%	2.19	+1.0
Match result	Home	1.55	60.4%	61.0%	1.64	+0.6
Match result	Away	5.40	17.3%	17.9%	5.59	+0.6
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.14	81.5%	82.1%	1.22	+0.6
Goals	Under 2.5	2.25	41.9%	42.3%	2.36	+0.4
Double chance	Draw/Away	2.38	39.0%	39.0%	2.56	-0.0
Goals	Over 2.5	1.62	58.1%	57.7%	1.73	-0.4
Double chance	Home/Away	1.17	79.4%	78.9%	1.27	-0.5
Both teams to score	Yes	1.65	55.4%	54.4%	1.84	-1.0
Match result	Draw	4.20	22.3%	21.1%	4.74	-1.2
Goals	Over 3.5	2.55	37.0%	35.3%	2.83	-1.7

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Twente

2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)

Qarabag

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Twente win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.