Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet · Analysis updated 05:34 UTC
US Monastirienne vs ES Zarzis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for US Monastirienne and 1.18 for ES Zarzis, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives US Monastirienne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
US Monastirienne or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
US Monastirienne home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates US Monastirienne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for US Monastirienne and 1.18 for ES Zarzis, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
US Monastirienne
- 2026-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Soliman · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs JS Kairouanaise · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Metlaoui · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Gabes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs US Ben Guerdane · 0-2 (L)
ES Zarzis
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.