Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet · Analysis updated 03:51 UTC
US Monastirienne vs ES Zarzis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for US Monastirienne and 1.03 for ES Zarzis, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives US Monastirienne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
US Monastirienne win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Monastirienne home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ES Zarzis away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
US Monastirienne
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Bizertin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Zarzis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Ben Guerdane · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Tunisien · 2-1 (W)
ES Zarzis
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Réal Bamako · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Réal Bamako · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Africain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · US Monastirienne 0-0 ES Zarzis (Cup)
- 2026-02-15T13:00:00.000Z · US Monastirienne 3-0 ES Zarzis (Ligue 1)
- 2025-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · US Monastirienne 1-0 ES Zarzis (Ligue 1)
- 2025-03-13T13:00:00.000Z · US Monastirienne 2-1 ES Zarzis (Ligue 1)
- 2024-12-01T13:00:00.000Z · US Monastirienne 0-0 ES Zarzis (Ligue 1)
- 2022-04-13T12:30:00.000Z · US Monastirienne 0-1 ES Zarzis (Ligue 1)
- 2021-11-21T15:00:00.000Z · US Monastirienne 1-0 ES Zarzis (Ligue 1)
- 2021-06-02T14:00:00.000Z · US Monastirienne 1-0 ES Zarzis (Cup)
- 2018-03-11T13:30:00.000Z · US Monastirienne 0-0 ES Zarzis (Ligue 1)
- 2017-10-28T18:00:00.000Z · US Monastirienne 3-0 ES Zarzis (Ligue 1)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is US Monastirienne win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.