Stadion Galgenwaard · Referee Danny Makkelie, Netherlands · Analysis updated 19:40 UTC
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Utrecht and 2.31 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.
Model pick
AZ Alkmaar to Win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.1%
- 0–27.2%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–16.3%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates AZ Alkmaar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 21% / 19% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Utrecht and 2.31 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
AZ Alkmaar to Win is the headline pick at 60% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.