Stadion Galgenwaard · Referee Danny Makkelie, Netherlands · Analysis updated 18:34 UTC
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.56 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Model pick
AZ Alkmaar or Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.3%
Why the model likes this
Recent form
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.