Stadion Galgenwaard · Referee Danny Makkelie, Netherlands · Analysis updated 13:08 UTC
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Utrecht and 2.46 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AZ Alkmaar win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utrecht home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AZ Alkmaar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–26.1%
Recent form
Utrecht
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 2-1 (W)
AZ Alkmaar
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-4 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2026-03-01T15:45:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-0 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-10-26T15:45:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-4 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-01-18T17:45:00.000Z · Utrecht 0-0 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2024-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2024-05-19T12:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 3-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2023-12-03T15:45:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2023-02-07T17:45:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-1 AZ Alkmaar (KNVB Beker)
- 2023-01-28T20:00:00.000Z · Utrecht 5-5 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2022-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AZ Alkmaar win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.