England · Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 714:00
UxbridgeDWW

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 12 September 2026

· Analysis updated 23:44 UTC

Uxbridge vs Chichester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Uxbridge and 0.71 for Chichester City, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Uxbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.

Model pick

Uxbridge to Win

63.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.71

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Uxbridge win63%
Draw23%
Chichester City win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams to score42%

Correct score

  • 1–014.7%
  • 2–013.1%
  • 1–110.5%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–08.3%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Uxbridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 23% / 14% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.78 goals for Uxbridge and 0.71 for Chichester City, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.

  • Model confidence

    Uxbridge to Win is the headline pick at 63% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Uxbridge

    Chichester City

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Non League Premier - Southern South table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Chertsey Town321047
      2Uxbridge321047
      3Bath City321027
      4Frome Town320156
      5Taunton Town320126
      6Hanworth Villa320126
      7Evesham United320116
      8Hanwell Town312015
      9Yate Town312015
      10Plymouth Parkway311164
      11Sholing311104
      12Chippenham Town3111-14
      13Bracknell Town3111-64
      14Basingstoke Town3102-13
      15Berkhamsted3102-23
      16Poole Town3102-23
      17Chichester City3102-33
      18Havant & Wville3102-33
      19Malvern Town3021-32
      20Gloucester City3012-21
      21Gosport Borough3012-21
      22Wimborne Town3012-31

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.