Uxbridge vs Chichester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Uxbridge and 1.38 for Chichester City, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Uxbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Uxbridge home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chichester City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uxbridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Uxbridge and 1.38 for Chichester City, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Uxbridge win42%

Draw24%

Chichester City win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.3%
2–18.9%
1–08.2%
1–27.8%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Uxbridge

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Hornchurch · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungerford Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Basingstoke Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lewes · 2-1 (W)

Chichester City

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bracknell Town · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sholing · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth Parkway · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Uxbridge 5-0 Chichester City (Non League Premier - Southern South)

Non League Premier - Southern South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	8	2	1	15	26
3	Bath City	13	8	2	3	9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	7	3	3	10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	12	7	2	3	12	23
6	Chichester City	13	7	1	5	2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	5	4	3	7	19
9	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	5	3	3	11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	5	3	5	2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	5	1	6	-2	16
13	Basingstoke Town	13	4	3	6	-4	15
14	Bracknell Town	13	4	2	7	-14	14
15	Yate Town	12	3	4	5	-9	13
16	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	-11	13
17	Sholing	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	-4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	-15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	2	4	4	-3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	2	3	8	-8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	-14	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.