· Analysis updated 02:23 UTC
Worthing vs Barrow Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Worthing and 1.22 for Barrow, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Worthing the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.
Model pick
Worthing to Win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–16.5%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Worthing to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Worthing and 1.22 for Barrow, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Worthing to Win is the headline pick at 56% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Worthing
Barrow
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harrogate Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | AFC Hornchurch | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Sutton Utd | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Southend | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Hartlepool | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Forest Green | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Boreham Wood | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | AFC Fylde | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Gateshead | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Boston United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Worthing | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Eastleigh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Aldershot Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Kidderminster Harriers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Yeovil Town | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Tamworth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | Carlisle | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Scunthorpe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | FC Halifax Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 21 | Altrincham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 22 | Barrow | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 24 | Woking | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.