Worthing vs Barrow Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Worthing and 1.22 for Barrow, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Worthing the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Worthing to Win

55.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.02 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Worthing win56%

Draw22%

Barrow win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–19.7%
2–08.0%
1–07.9%
3–16.5%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Worthing to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Worthing and 1.22 for Barrow, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Worthing to Win is the headline pick at 56% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Worthing

Barrow

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Harrogate Town	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	AFC Hornchurch	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Sutton Utd	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Southend	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	Hartlepool	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	Forest Green	2	2	0	0	2	6
7	Boreham Wood	2	1	1	0	2	4
8	AFC Fylde	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Gateshead	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	Boston United	2	1	0	1	1	3
11	Worthing	2	1	0	1	0	3
12	Eastleigh	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Aldershot Town	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Kidderminster Harriers	2	1	0	1	-2	3
15	Yeovil Town	2	0	2	0	0	2
16	Tamworth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Carlisle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Scunthorpe	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Wealdstone	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	FC Halifax Town	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Altrincham	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Barrow	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Solihull Moors	2	0	0	2	-5	0
24	Woking	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.