AC Milan vs Parma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.57 for Parma, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives AC Milan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

AC Milan to Win

60.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.54 – 0.57

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

AC Milan win61%

Draw25%

Parma win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–018.6%
2–014.3%
0–012.1%
1–110.7%
2–18.2%

Why the model likes this

Parma away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Milan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 25% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for AC Milan and 0.57 for Parma, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 34%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.

Recent form

AC Milan

Parma

2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Catania · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.