AC Milan vs Parma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.57 for Parma, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives AC Milan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

AC Milan to Win

60.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.54 – 0.57

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

AC Milan win61%

Draw25%

Parma win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–018.6%
2–014.3%
0–012.1%
1–110.7%
2–18.2%

Why the model likes this

Parma away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Milan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 25% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for AC Milan and 0.57 for Parma, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 34%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.

Recent form

AC Milan

Parma

2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Catania · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.