APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs UNSW Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.69 expected goals for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.11 for UNSW, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives APIA Leichhardt Tigers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws roughly 29% of the time.

Model pick

APIA Leichhardt Tigers to Win

70.8% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.69 – 1.11

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

APIA Leichhardt Tigers win71%

Draw16%

UNSW win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.0%
2–08.1%
3–18.1%
3–07.3%
1–16.7%

Why the model likes this

APIA Leichhardt Tigers home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates APIA Leichhardt Tigers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 16% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.69 goals for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.11 for UNSW, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Raiders · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney United · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T08:30:00.000Z · A vs St. George Saints · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-02T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Sydney Olympic · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs UNSW · 4-1 (W)

UNSW

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

New South Wales NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	APIA Leichhardt Tigers	28	20	4	4	29	64
2	Sydney United	28	19	3	6	21	60
3	Marconi Stallions	27	17	4	6	26	55
4	Sutherland Sharks	27	13	4	10	9	43
5	Rockdale City Suns	27	12	4	11	6	40
6	Manly United	28	10	8	10	-2	38
7	SD Raiders	28	11	5	12	-5	38
8	NWS Spirit	28	11	4	13	-2	37
9	Sydney FC U23	28	10	7	11	-6	37
10	St George City FA	28	10	7	11	-13	37
11	Western Sydney Wanderers U23	28	10	5	13	7	35
12	Wollongong Wolves	27	9	5	13	-8	32
13	Blacktown City	27	8	7	12	-4	31
14	UNSW	27	9	4	14	-7	31
15	St. George Saints	28	7	3	18	-22	24
16	Sydney Olympic	28	6	4	18	-29	22

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.