Lambert Park · Analysis updated 06:05 UTC
APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs UNSW Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.66 expected goals for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.01 for UNSW, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives APIA Leichhardt Tigers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
APIA Leichhardt Tigers win
72.4% probability
Expected goals
2.66 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
APIA Leichhardt Tigers home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UNSW away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates APIA Leichhardt Tigers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.66 goals for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.01 for UNSW, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–18.1%
- 3–08.0%
- 1–16.8%
Recent form
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
- 2026-09-13T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sydney United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T06:00:00.000Z · H vs NWS Spirit · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs St George City FA · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Sydney United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Victory · 0-1 (L)
UNSW
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Rockdale City Suns · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T07:15:00.000Z · H vs Manly United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Blacktown City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney Olympic · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
New South Wales NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers | 30 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 68 |
| 2 | Sydney United | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 64 |
| 3 | Marconi Stallions | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 62 |
| 4 | Sutherland Sharks | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Manly United | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Rockdale City Suns | 30 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 43 |
| 7 | NWS Spirit | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | SD Raiders | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -5 | 41 |
| 9 | Sydney FC U23 | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -5 | 41 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers U23 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 38 |
| 11 | Wollongong Wolves | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | -8 | 38 |
| 12 | St George City FA | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | -16 | 37 |
| 13 | Blacktown City | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | UNSW | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 32 |
| 15 | St. George Saints | 30 | 8 | 3 | 19 | -27 | 27 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -30 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is APIA Leichhardt Tigers win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.