Athletic Club vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.88 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Villarreal to Win

53.8% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Athletic Club win24%

Draw23%

Villarreal win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.4%
1–29.8%
0–18.8%
0–28.3%
1–36.1%

Why the model likes this

Villarreal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarreal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 24% / 23% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Athletic Club and 1.88 for Villarreal, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Athletic Club

2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 2-2 (D)

Villarreal

2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	59	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	42	86
3	Villarreal	38	22	6	10	26	72
4	Atletico Madrid	38	21	6	11	18	69
5	Real Betis	38	15	15	8	11	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	14	12	12	5	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	-6	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	12	14	12	-3	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	-9	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	11	13	14	-2	46
11	Espanyol	38	12	10	16	-12	46
12	Athletic Club	38	13	6	19	-15	45
13	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	-14	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	-12	43
15	Elche	38	10	13	15	-8	43
16	Levante	38	11	9	18	-14	42
17	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	-6	42
18	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	-10	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	-16	41
20	Oviedo	38	6	11	21	-34	29

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.