Athletic Club vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.30 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Athletic Club home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Villarreal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Athletic Club win39%

Draw26%

Villarreal win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–09.4%
0–18.7%
2–18.6%
1–28.0%

Recent form

Athletic Club

2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-1 (D)

Villarreal

2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Napoli · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 1-2 Villarreal (La Liga)
2025-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 0-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
2025-04-06T19:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 0-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
2024-12-08T15:15:00.000Z · Athletic Club 2-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
2024-04-14T16:30:00.000Z · Athletic Club 1-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
2023-11-05T17:30:00.000Z · Athletic Club 3-2 Villarreal (La Liga)
2023-05-13T16:30:00.000Z · Athletic Club 1-5 Villarreal (La Liga)
2022-10-30T17:30:00.000Z · Athletic Club 1-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
2022-04-09T16:30:00.000Z · Athletic Club 1-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
2021-10-23T19:00:00.000Z · Athletic Club 2-1 Villarreal (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	8	1	1	12	25
3	Real Madrid	9	7	0	2	14	21
4	Real Betis	9	6	1	2	2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	5	1	3	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	4	2	3	-2	14
7	Alaves	10	3	3	4	3	12
8	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	1	12
9	Celta Vigo	9	2	5	2	3	11
10	Deportivo La Coruna	10	2	5	3	0	11
11	Osasuna	9	3	2	4	-8	11
12	Racing Santander	10	3	2	5	-11	11
13	Levante	9	2	4	3	-2	10
14	Elche	10	2	4	4	-3	10
15	Athletic Club	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Getafe	9	2	3	4	-6	9
17	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	-8	9
18	Espanyol	10	2	2	6	-2	8
19	Valencia	10	1	3	6	-10	6
20	Malaga	10	0	5	5	-12	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.