Sports Centre de Bongerd · Analysis updated 02:43 UTC
Barendrecht vs Excelsior Maassluis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Barendrecht and 1.18 for Excelsior Maassluis, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Barendrecht the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Barendrecht or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Barendrecht home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barendrecht to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Barendrecht and 1.18 for Excelsior Maassluis, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Barendrecht
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs HHC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 1-4 (L)
Excelsior Maassluis
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Quick Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | De Treffers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Almere City II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | HHC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Hoek | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Kloetinge | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Ijsselmeervogels | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Kozakken Boys | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Katwijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | AFC Amsterdam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Barendrecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Koninklijke HFC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | GVVV Veenendaal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | ROHDA Raalte | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | RKAV Volendam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.