Barendrecht vs Excelsior Maassluis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Barendrecht and 1.56 for Excelsior Maassluis, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Barendrecht the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Barendrecht home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior Maassluis away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barendrecht to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Barendrecht and 1.56 for Excelsior Maassluis, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Barendrecht win38%

Draw24%

Excelsior Maassluis win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–18.4%
1–28.3%
1–06.8%
0–16.8%

Recent form

Barendrecht

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Amsterdam · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs HHC · 1-0 (W)

Excelsior Maassluis

2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zwaluwen · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TOGB · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vvsb · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Blauw Geel · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportlust '46 · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tweede Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Quick Boys	11	9	1	1	24	28
2	De Treffers	11	6	4	1	16	22
3	Ijsselmeervogels	11	7	1	3	6	22
4	Kozakken Boys	11	6	3	2	12	21
5	HHC	11	6	3	2	5	21
6	Barendrecht	11	6	2	3	3	20
7	GVVV Veenendaal	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	RKAV Volendam	11	5	3	3	1	18
9	Spakenburg	11	4	2	5	-4	14
10	Katwijk	11	4	2	5	-7	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam II	11	3	4	4	4	13
12	Almere City II	11	4	1	6	1	13
13	AFC Amsterdam	11	4	1	6	-4	13
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	11	4	1	6	-10	13
15	Hoek	11	2	4	5	-6	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Kloetinge	11	1	4	6	-13	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	11	0	1	10	-24	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.