Stadio Ciro Vigorito · Analysis updated 00:46 UTC
Benevento vs Modena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Benevento and 1.18 for Modena, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Benevento the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Benevento or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Modena away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benevento to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Benevento and 1.18 for Modena, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Benevento
Modena
- 2026-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vis Pesaro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Bolzano · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-05-13T12:00:00.000Z · Benevento 2-1 Modena (Serie B)
- 2022-12-18T13:00:00.000Z · Benevento 1-1 Modena (Serie B)
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.