Stadio Ciro Vigorito · Referee Edoardo Manedo Mazzoni, Italy · Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
Benevento vs Modena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Benevento and 1.17 for Modena, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Benevento the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Benevento home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Modena away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benevento to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Benevento and 1.17 for Modena, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–08.5%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Benevento
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrarese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Ascoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-1 (D)
Modena
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Empoli · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Avellino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cremonese · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · Benevento 1-2 Modena (Serie B)
- 2023-05-13T12:00:00.000Z · Benevento 2-1 Modena (Serie B)
- 2022-12-18T13:00:00.000Z · Benevento 1-1 Modena (Serie B)
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Mantova | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Modena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Sudtirol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Pisa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Benevento | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Padova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Cesena | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Empoli | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.