· Analysis updated 04:39 UTC
Birmingham vs Portsmouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.02 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Birmingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.
Model pick
Birmingham to Win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–17.8%
Why the model likes this
Birmingham home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Birmingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Birmingham and 1.02 for Portsmouth, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Birmingham
- 2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Utd · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crewe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-22T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Burton Albion · 1-0 (W)
Portsmouth
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.