· Analysis updated 21:49 UTC
Birmingham vs Portsmouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.04 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Birmingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Birmingham win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Birmingham home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portsmouth away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Birmingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Birmingham and 1.04 for Portsmouth, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Birmingham
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 2-2 (D)
Portsmouth
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Birmingham win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.