· Referee D. Smajc · Analysis updated 00:31 UTC
Celje vs Mura Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Celje and 1.14 for Mura, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Celje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws roughly 35% of the time.
Model pick
Celje to Win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–07.0%
Why the model likes this
Celje home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Celje and 1.14 for Mura, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Celje
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nafta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
Mura
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Celje | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Nafta | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bravo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Koper | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Radomlje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Mura | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Aluminij | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.