· Referee D. Smajc · Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Celje vs Mura Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Celje and 1.00 for Mura, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Celje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Celje win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celje home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mura away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Celje
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
Mura
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Bravo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Koper · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · Celje 0-0 Mura (1. SNL)
- 2026-07-17T18:15:00.000Z · Celje 2-2 Mura (1. SNL)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · Celje 2-0 Mura (1. SNL)
- 2026-02-14T14:00:00.000Z · Celje 5-1 Mura (1. SNL)
- 2025-10-26T19:15:00.000Z · Celje 1-2 Mura (1. SNL)
- 2025-08-10T18:15:00.000Z · Celje 3-0 Mura (1. SNL)
- 2025-04-13T15:30:00.000Z · Celje 2-1 Mura (1. SNL)
- 2025-02-16T14:00:00.000Z · Celje 0-0 Mura (1. SNL)
- 2024-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Celje 4-3 Mura (1. SNL)
- 2024-08-03T18:15:00.000Z · Celje 0-1 Mura (1. SNL)
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Celje win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.