Como vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Como and 0.68 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Como the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws roughly 31% of the time.

Model pick

Como to Win

69.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.02 – 0.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Como win69%

Draw20%

Genoa win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

2–013.8%
1–013.6%
2–19.3%
3–09.3%
1–19.2%

Why the model likes this

Como home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 20% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Como and 0.68 for Genoa, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 43%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Recent form

Como

2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-24T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-2 (D)

Genoa

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.