Como vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Como and 0.83 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Como the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Como win

61.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Como home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Como and 0.83 for Genoa, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Como win61%

Draw22%

Genoa win17%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–012.9%
2–011.8%
1–110.6%
2–19.7%
3–07.2%

Recent form

Como

2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 4-1 (W)

Genoa

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Como win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.