World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round19:00

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Thursday, 13 August 2026

Auda

Elbasan Arena · Referee C. Vergetis · Analysis updated 21:37 UTC

Dinamo Tirana vs Auda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Dinamo Tirana and 1.75 for Auda, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Auda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Auda or Draw

66.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Dinamo Tirana win34%
Draw23%
Auda win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams to score65%

Correct score

  • 1–110.1%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 2–17.7%
  • 2–26.7%
  • 0–16.6%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Auda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 34% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.52 goals for Dinamo Tirana and 1.75 for Auda, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

  • Model confidence

    Auda or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Dinamo Tirana

    Auda

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.