World · UEFA Europa Conference League · Qualifying19:00

4 – 0

Thursday, 13 August 2026

Elbasan Arena · Referee C. Vergetis · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC

Dinamo Tirana vs Auda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Dinamo Tirana and 1.18 for Auda, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Dinamo Tirana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dinamo Tirana win

46.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.57 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dinamo Tirana home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Tirana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Dinamo Tirana and 1.18 for Auda, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Dinamo Tirana win46%

Draw25%

Auda win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–010.0%
2–19.3%
2–07.9%
0–17.5%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Goals	Under 3.5	1.36	68.4%	70.3%	1.42	+1.9
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.75	52.6%	53.6%	1.87	+1.0
Match result	Away	3.30	27.7%	28.6%	3.50	+0.9
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.30	70.8%	71.4%	1.40	+0.6
Both teams to score	No	2.05	44.6%	45.1%	2.22	+0.5
Match result	Home	1.98	46.2%	46.4%	2.16	+0.2
Goals	Under 2.5	1.95	48.0%	48.2%	2.07	+0.2
Goals	Over 2.5	1.80	52.0%	51.8%	1.93	-0.2
Both teams to score	Yes	1.65	55.4%	54.9%	1.82	-0.5
Match result	Draw	3.50	26.1%	25.0%	4.00	-1.1
Double chance	Home/Away	1.20	76.7%	75.0%	1.33	-1.7
Goals	Over 3.5	2.95	31.6%	29.7%	3.37	-1.9

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Dinamo Tirana

2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Laci · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizani · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AF Elbasani · 2-1 (W)

Auda

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ogre United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Daugavpils · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dinamo Tirana win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.