Érdi VSE vs Pécsi MFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Érdi VSE and 2.28 for Pécsi MFC, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Pécsi MFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.

Model pick

Pécsi MFC to Win

58.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.34 – 2.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Érdi VSE win22%

Draw20%

Pécsi MFC win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–29.3%
1–18.2%
1–37.1%
0–27.0%
2–26.2%

Why the model likes this

Pécsi MFC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pécsi MFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 22% / 20% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Érdi VSE and 2.28 for Pécsi MFC, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Érdi VSE

Pécsi MFC

2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sárbogárd · 6-0 (W)
2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunaharaszti MTK · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fehérvár FC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pécsi MFC	4	4	0	0	13	12
2	Kaposvar	3	3	0	0	11	9
3	PTE-PEAC	4	3	0	1	1	9
4	Ferencváros II	4	2	1	1	2	7
5	Budafoki LC	4	2	1	1	1	7
6	Budaörs	4	2	1	1	-4	7
7	MTK Budapest II	4	2	0	2	8	6
8	Iváncsa	3	2	0	1	4	6
9	Érdi VSE	3	1	2	0	2	5
10	Siofok	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Dunaharaszti MTK	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Paksi SE II	4	0	2	2	-4	2
13	Majosi	3	0	1	2	-3	1
14	Dunaujvaros FC	1	0	0	1	-3	0
15	Sárbogárd	3	0	0	3	-8	0
16	Szekszárd	4	0	0	4	-16	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.