· Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Érdi VSE vs Pécsi MFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Érdi VSE and 2.93 for Pécsi MFC, a combined total of 4.45. That distribution gives Pécsi MFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pécsi MFC win
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Érdi VSE home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pécsi MFC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pécsi MFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 18% / 16% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Érdi VSE and 2.93 for Pécsi MFC, a combined 4.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.6%
- 1–37.4%
- 2–25.8%
- 2–35.7%
- 1–45.4%
Recent form
Érdi VSE
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pécsi MFC · 1-2 (L)
Pécsi MFC
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaposvar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Iváncsa · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 28 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | PTE-PEAC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Budafoki LC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Ferencváros II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Iváncsa | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Siofok | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Majosi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | MTK Budapest II | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
| 11 | Érdi VSE | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -34 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pécsi MFC win, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.