· Analysis updated 06:44 UTC
Estrela vs Academico Viseu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Estrela and 1.31 for Academico Viseu, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Estrela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.
Model pick
Estrela to Win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–27.0%
Why the model likes this
Academico Viseu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estrela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Estrela and 1.31 for Academico Viseu, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Estrela
Academico Viseu
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP B · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.