Estádio José Gomes · Referee Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal · Analysis updated 06:05 UTC
Estrela vs Academico Viseu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Estrela and 0.88 for Academico Viseu, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Estrela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.4% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estrela home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Academico Viseu away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 58.8% vs market 48.5%, edge +10.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.5% | 58.8% | 1.70 | +10.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 54.0% | 56.0% | 1.79 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 43.6% | 44.0% | 2.27 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 73.3% | 73.4% | 1.36 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.5% | 29.4% | 3.40 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.9% | 26.6% | 3.76 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 70.6% | 1.42 | -2.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.5% | 41.2% | 2.43 | -10.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Estrela
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fazendense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 3-3 (D)
Academico Viseu
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · Estrela 0-2 Academico Viseu (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-03-05T14:00:00.000Z · Estrela 1-1 Academico Viseu (Segunda Liga)
- 2022-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · Estrela 2-1 Academico Viseu (Segunda Liga)
- 2022-03-05T11:00:00.000Z · Estrela 4-0 Academico Viseu (Segunda Liga)
- 2021-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · Estrela 4-0 Academico Viseu (Segunda Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.