· Analysis updated 05:49 UTC
GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.28 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives GIL Vicente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
GIL Vicente to Win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.2%
Why the model likes this
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GIL Vicente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for GIL Vicente and 1.28 for Sporting CP, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
GIL Vicente
Sporting CP
- 2026-08-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-20T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T19:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-01-02T18:45:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-05-04T19:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-27T20:45:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-1 Sporting CP (Taça de Portugal)
- 2024-12-22T20:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-0 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-12T19:15:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-4 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-12-04T20:15:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-05T19:15:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-0 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-05-01T19:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-4 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.