GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.37 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

GIL Vicente home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting CP away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

GIL Vicente win29%

Draw27%

Sporting CP win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.8%
0–112.0%
1–09.3%
1–28.8%
0–08.7%

Recent form

GIL Vicente

2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)

Sporting CP

2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-16T19:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2026-01-02T18:45:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2025-05-04T19:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2025-02-27T20:45:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-1 Sporting CP (Taça de Portugal)
2024-12-22T20:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-0 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2024-04-12T19:15:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-4 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2023-12-04T20:15:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2023-04-05T19:15:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 0-0 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2022-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
2022-05-01T19:30:00.000Z · GIL Vicente 1-4 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	16	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	7	3	2	2	1	11
8	Alverca	8	3	2	3	1	11
9	SC Braga	7	3	2	2	0	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	-1	10
11	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-5	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
15	Vitória SC	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	-14	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.