· Analysis updated 00:27 UTC
Haukar vs Selfoss Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.57 expected goals for Haukar and 1.55 for Selfoss, a combined total of 4.11. That distribution gives Haukar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.
Model pick
Haukar to Win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
2.57 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–26.4%
- 3–25.5%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haukar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 18% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.57 goals for Haukar and 1.55 for Selfoss, a combined 4.11 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 73%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
Haukar to Win is the headline pick at 60% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Haukar
Selfoss
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 38 |
| 2 | Selfoss | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 32 |
| 3 | Kári | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 29 |
| 4 | Fjolnir | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 25 |
| 5 | Vikingur Olafsiik | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 6 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 |
| 7 | Dalvík / Reynir | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | -3 | 21 |
| 8 | Magni | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 21 |
| 9 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 20 |
| 10 | Thróttur Vogar | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Hvíti riddarinn | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | -11 | 16 |
| 12 | KFG | 17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | -29 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.