· Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Haukar vs Selfoss Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Haukar and 1.98 for Selfoss, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Haukar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haukar win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haukar home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haukar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 20% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Haukar and 1.98 for Selfoss, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.1%
- 1–26.0%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Haukar
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Selfoss · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Kormákur / Hvöt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kári · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Selfoss · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Olafsiik · 4-1 (W)
Selfoss
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Haukar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Álftanes · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KFG · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haukar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Magni · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 47 |
| 2 | Selfoss | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Kári | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 42 |
| 4 | Dalvík / Reynir | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 31 |
| 5 | Vikingur Olafsiik | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 31 |
| 6 | Fjolnir | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 30 |
| 7 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 29 |
| 8 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 27 |
| 9 | Magni | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 25 |
| 10 | Thróttur Vogar | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | -9 | 23 |
| 11 | KFG | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -20 | 22 |
| 12 | Hvíti riddarinn | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -26 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haukar win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.