England · National League - North · National League North - 518:45

18:45 UTC

Friday, 28 August 2026

· Analysis updated 02:52 UTC

Hednesford Town vs Harborough Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Hednesford Town and 1.52 for Harborough Town, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Harborough Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Harborough Town or Draw

69.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Hednesford Town win31%
Draw25%
Harborough Town win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams to score55%

Correct score

  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–19.8%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 1–07.9%
  • 0–27.4%

Why the model likes this

  • Hednesford Town home form

    7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Harborough Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.23 goals for Hednesford Town and 1.52 for Harborough Town, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Hednesford Town

  • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scarborough Athletic · 3-4 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merthyr Town · 0-2 (L)
  • 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston United · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Solihull Moors · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rylands · 1-1 (D)

Harborough Town

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    National League - North table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Chester220036
    2Worksop Town220026
    3Macclesfield220026
    4South Shields220026
    5Oxford City220026
    6Hebburn Town211024
    7Brackley Town211014
    8Buxton211014
    9Spennymoor Town211014
    10Harborough Town211014
    11Merthyr Town210113
    12Spalding United210113
    13Darlington 1883210103
    14Scarborough Athletic210103
    15Hereford210103
    16Morecambe2011-11
    17Southport2011-21
    18King's Lynn Town2011-21
    19AFC Telford United2002-20
    20Bedford Town2002-20
    21Chorley2002-20
    22Marine2002-20
    23Hednesford Town2002-30
    24Radcliffe2002-30

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.