· Analysis updated 02:52 UTC
Hednesford Town vs Harborough Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Hednesford Town and 1.52 for Harborough Town, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Harborough Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Harborough Town or Draw
69.3% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–27.4%
Why the model likes this
Hednesford Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Harborough Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Hednesford Town and 1.52 for Harborough Town, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Hednesford Town
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Scarborough Athletic · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merthyr Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Solihull Moors · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rylands · 1-1 (D)
Harborough Town
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Worksop Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | South Shields | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Oxford City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Hebburn Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Brackley Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Buxton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Spennymoor Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Harborough Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Merthyr Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Darlington 1883 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Hereford | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Morecambe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | Southport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | King's Lynn Town | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | AFC Telford United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Bedford Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 21 | Chorley | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Marine | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Hednesford Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.