Keys Park · Analysis updated 11:53 UTC
Hednesford Town vs Harborough Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Hednesford Town and 1.34 for Harborough Town, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Hednesford Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hednesford Town home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Harborough Town away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hednesford Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Hednesford Town and 1.34 for Harborough Town, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.40 | 66.3% | 68.1% | 1.47 | +1.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 57.2% | 58.6% | 1.71 | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.20 | 41.3% | 42.5% | 2.35 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 40.3% | 41.4% | 2.42 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 33.0% | 33.7% | 2.97 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.05 | 45.3% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.0% | 75.1% | 1.33 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.70 | 54.7% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 58.7% | 57.5% | 1.74 | -1.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 67.8% | 66.3% | 1.51 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 24.9% | 4.02 | -1.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.75 | 33.7% | 31.9% | 3.13 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hednesford Town
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brackley Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hereford · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Radcliffe · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hebburn Town · 1-2 (L)
Harborough Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St Albans City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Macclesfield · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rushall Olympic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Telford United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hereford · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Hednesford Town 0-2 Harborough Town (FA Trophy)
National League - North table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | South Shields | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | King's Lynn Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Hednesford Town | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chester | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Buxton | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Bedford Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Hebburn Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 13 | Chorley | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Worksop Town | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 | Marine | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 16 | Harborough Town | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 17 | Scarborough Athletic | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Radcliffe | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 20 | Brackley Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | AFC Telford United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 23 | Southport | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.