Inter vs Lecce Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.66 expected goals for Inter and 0.57 for Lecce, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws roughly 18% of the time.

Model pick

Inter to Win

81.6% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.66 – 0.57

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Inter win82%

Draw13%

Lecce win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

18%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

2–013.9%
3–012.4%
1–010.5%
4–08.2%
2–18.0%

Why the model likes this

Lecce away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 13% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.66 goals for Inter and 0.57 for Lecce, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 41%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Recent form

Inter

Lecce

2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SS Monopoli · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bistrica · 5-2 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Szombathelyi Haladas · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.