· Analysis updated 08:46 UTC
Inter vs Lecce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Inter and 1.10 for Lecce, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Inter win
69.1% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lecce away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–17.9%
- 3–07.2%
- 1–17.2%
Recent form
Inter
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 2-0 (W)
Lecce
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-21T17:00:00.000Z · Inter 2-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2026-01-14T19:45:00.000Z · Inter 1-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2025-01-26T17:00:00.000Z · Inter 4-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2024-08-24T18:45:00.000Z · Inter 2-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2024-02-25T17:00:00.000Z · Inter 4-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2023-12-23T17:00:00.000Z · Inter 2-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2023-03-05T17:00:00.000Z · Inter 2-0 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2022-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · Inter 2-1 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2020-01-19T14:00:00.000Z · Inter 1-1 Lecce (Serie A)
- 2019-08-26T18:45:00.000Z · Inter 4-0 Lecce (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 4 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter win, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.