Rugby Park · Referee R. Lee · Analysis updated 00:27 UTC
Kilmarnock vs Celtic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Kilmarnock and 2.79 for Celtic, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Celtic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws roughly 35% of the time.
Model pick
Celtic to Win
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–37.6%
- 2–25.9%
- 1–15.8%
- 0–25.6%
Why the model likes this
Celtic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celtic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 18% / 17% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Kilmarnock and 2.79 for Celtic, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
Kilmarnock
Celtic
- 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.